Rainfall play an important role in crop management and monitoring, as it directly influences planting calendar, irrigation needs, crop growth and yield outcomes. This study was attempted to analyze seasonal rainfall variability and its impact on wheat crop production to understand association of seasonal rainfall characteristics with wheat crop production over North Showa Zone Amhara Region. Both time series station and satellite gridded rainfall data sets were obtained from Ethiopian Meteorology Institute from 1985 to 2021. Wheat crop production for main rainy season (Meher) was obtained from Ethiopian Statistical Service from 2010-2021, collected from household farm association level. Analysis of rainfall data sets was provided with climate data tool (CDT V8), R studio and Microsoft excel and ArcGIS 10.8. Coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index and Standardized anomaly index (SAI) were applied to analyze long year seasonal and annual rainfall variability. Man-Kendall trend analysis methods were applied for rainfall trend analysis. Correlation coefficient on the other side has been applied to analyze rainfall variability impact on wheat crop production. The findings of this paper indicate irregular variation of spring (Belg) rainfall, moderate to low variation in summer and annual rainfall over the study area. Using correlation and coefficient of determination (R²) analyses, significant spatial variability was observed in the rainfall-crop relationship. Strong positive correlations were found in districts such as Ensaro (r = 0.7, R² = 0.4384) and Tarmaber (r = 0.7, R² = 0.5223), where over 40% and 50% of the variability in wheat production can be attributed to rainfall, respectively. Conversely, weaker correlations were evident in areas like Mojana Wodera (r = 0.5, R² = 0.2049), and Ankober (r = -0.3, R² = 0.097), suggesting that in these districts, rainfall plays a less dominant role in determining crop production, with other factors such as soil fertility and agricultural practices possibly having a greater influence.
| Published in | Advances in Applied Sciences (Volume 10, Issue 3) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.aas.20251003.12 |
| Page(s) | 45-64 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
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Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Wheat Crop Production, Seasonal Rainfall Variability, North Showa Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia
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APA Style
Wolde, G. B. (2025). Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Crop Production Over North Showa Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Advances in Applied Sciences, 10(3), 45-64. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20251003.12
ACS Style
Wolde, G. B. Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Crop Production Over North Showa Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Adv. Appl. Sci. 2025, 10(3), 45-64. doi: 10.11648/j.aas.20251003.12
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Download@article{10.11648/j.aas.20251003.12,
author = {Getahun Bekele Wolde},
title = {Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Crop Production Over North Showa Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia
},
journal = {Advances in Applied Sciences},
volume = {10},
number = {3},
pages = {45-64},
doi = {10.11648/j.aas.20251003.12},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20251003.12},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.aas.20251003.12},
abstract = {Rainfall play an important role in crop management and monitoring, as it directly influences planting calendar, irrigation needs, crop growth and yield outcomes. This study was attempted to analyze seasonal rainfall variability and its impact on wheat crop production to understand association of seasonal rainfall characteristics with wheat crop production over North Showa Zone Amhara Region. Both time series station and satellite gridded rainfall data sets were obtained from Ethiopian Meteorology Institute from 1985 to 2021. Wheat crop production for main rainy season (Meher) was obtained from Ethiopian Statistical Service from 2010-2021, collected from household farm association level. Analysis of rainfall data sets was provided with climate data tool (CDT V8), R studio and Microsoft excel and ArcGIS 10.8. Coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index and Standardized anomaly index (SAI) were applied to analyze long year seasonal and annual rainfall variability. Man-Kendall trend analysis methods were applied for rainfall trend analysis. Correlation coefficient on the other side has been applied to analyze rainfall variability impact on wheat crop production. The findings of this paper indicate irregular variation of spring (Belg) rainfall, moderate to low variation in summer and annual rainfall over the study area. Using correlation and coefficient of determination (R²) analyses, significant spatial variability was observed in the rainfall-crop relationship. Strong positive correlations were found in districts such as Ensaro (r = 0.7, R² = 0.4384) and Tarmaber (r = 0.7, R² = 0.5223), where over 40% and 50% of the variability in wheat production can be attributed to rainfall, respectively. Conversely, weaker correlations were evident in areas like Mojana Wodera (r = 0.5, R² = 0.2049), and Ankober (r = -0.3, R² = 0.097), suggesting that in these districts, rainfall plays a less dominant role in determining crop production, with other factors such as soil fertility and agricultural practices possibly having a greater influence.},
year = {2025}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Crop Production Over North Showa Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia AU - Getahun Bekele Wolde Y1 - 2025/07/28 PY - 2025 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20251003.12 DO - 10.11648/j.aas.20251003.12 T2 - Advances in Applied Sciences JF - Advances in Applied Sciences JO - Advances in Applied Sciences SP - 45 EP - 64 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2575-1514 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20251003.12 AB - Rainfall play an important role in crop management and monitoring, as it directly influences planting calendar, irrigation needs, crop growth and yield outcomes. This study was attempted to analyze seasonal rainfall variability and its impact on wheat crop production to understand association of seasonal rainfall characteristics with wheat crop production over North Showa Zone Amhara Region. Both time series station and satellite gridded rainfall data sets were obtained from Ethiopian Meteorology Institute from 1985 to 2021. Wheat crop production for main rainy season (Meher) was obtained from Ethiopian Statistical Service from 2010-2021, collected from household farm association level. Analysis of rainfall data sets was provided with climate data tool (CDT V8), R studio and Microsoft excel and ArcGIS 10.8. Coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index and Standardized anomaly index (SAI) were applied to analyze long year seasonal and annual rainfall variability. Man-Kendall trend analysis methods were applied for rainfall trend analysis. Correlation coefficient on the other side has been applied to analyze rainfall variability impact on wheat crop production. The findings of this paper indicate irregular variation of spring (Belg) rainfall, moderate to low variation in summer and annual rainfall over the study area. Using correlation and coefficient of determination (R²) analyses, significant spatial variability was observed in the rainfall-crop relationship. Strong positive correlations were found in districts such as Ensaro (r = 0.7, R² = 0.4384) and Tarmaber (r = 0.7, R² = 0.5223), where over 40% and 50% of the variability in wheat production can be attributed to rainfall, respectively. Conversely, weaker correlations were evident in areas like Mojana Wodera (r = 0.5, R² = 0.2049), and Ankober (r = -0.3, R² = 0.097), suggesting that in these districts, rainfall plays a less dominant role in determining crop production, with other factors such as soil fertility and agricultural practices possibly having a greater influence. VL - 10 IS - 3 ER -
Department of Aviation Meteorology Service, Ethiopian Meteorology Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
